Nuclear Deal – The Indian Political Drama

A lot of my fellow countrymen may be feeling that life is not the same boring humdrum existence that it normally tends to become. Suddenly, we have something of great interest that is monopolizing our attention. We Indians are being treated to an absorbing and a riveting drama being played out in our political capital. This drama belongs to the Political Satire genre.

Consider the ingredients of this thriller. There is spice, deceit, double crossing, secrecy, main plots, sub-plots, multiple characters, suspense, tragedy, fights, counter punches, loyalties, switching loyalties, bribery and many hidden twists and turns, emotional blackmail and so on...(Read the dailies and watch all channels – do not forget to sms your responses)

The frailties of human character are played out to perfection, highlighting pettiness, selfishness, and myopic vision of the players. (I am not listing all the frailties as we might just get derailed)

The best part of this drama is that there is no pre-written script. It is like a living organism which is evolving and mutating itself into different forms and shapes. All this is happening with the active and enthusiastic participation of the cast – our dear beloved politicians.

The plot owes its origin to a Nuclear Deal sought to be negotiated between India with the USA by the BJP led NDA. They lose power in 2004 and the succeeding Congress led UPA (supported by Leftie) seeks to complete what was begun by NDA.

Here comes the first twist – How can BJP/NDA permit Congress/UPA to take all the credit. After all it was their idea. So all efforts must be made to stall Cong/UPA. You queer the pitch by introducing the emotion of “Betraying National Interests” which shall sway the masses. Now enters the villain – our Leftie (Who has changed roles now). They up the stakes by threatening to withdraw support and topple the government.

Congress wants to enjoy fruits of power and Leftie keeps shouting “WOLF” every time Congress looks at USA. BJP/NDA goes shrill every time this happens, giving background music.

Circa – June 2008: Things heat up.

Congress is battered in many states. Inflation has taken its toll. Dream team of economists has messed up management of economy. Congress feels that this is time to cement their place in history. So they start moving and Leftie sulks and withdraws from the main stage vowing to topple Congress/UPA.

The pace quickens and the audience is at the edge of their seats. Suddenly there is hectic activity and there is movement in every direction. Everybody is rediscovering their love for the nation. They are in favour of statesmanship. Sworn enemies have turned fast friends – cum – saviours. A particular community is suspected of being vulnerable to radioactivity from all the “nuclear talk” going on so it is declared against their interests.

There are betrayals, fierce arguments, counter arguments, baits (Consensus is Rs. 25 crs), honey traps (maybe), silly postures and sillier statements.

We are at this stage now and the drama shall continue…………reaching new heights in theatrical expression.

Did I hear some one from the back seats say……”ENOUGH IS ENOUGH………Tell these old foggies to clear out………We need change……..”

Nuclear Deal - Our Delhi Circus

We are witnessing the “Delhi Circus” being played out everyday and is being brought to us with special comments from a biased media, biased political players, biased scientific establishment and lastly the industry lobby which has its own axe to grind.

The nuclear deal, political brinkmanship, deceit…. are all perfect ingredients to a racy thriller and we have not yet seen or heard the last on this.

What is, however, very surprising is that right from the beginning there is no attempt to examine what is involved in this deal, what are its strategic implications, what are the potential benefits of such an arrangement to us, what could go wrong and how well are we insulated from any such eventuality and in case the eventuality does happen do we have a Plan-B in place.

I understand that it makes no sense to publicly declare all those nuclear sites, which are being used for military purposes, or to discuss the quantum of plutonium we require as a strategic reserve or to debate on the number of nuclear weapons that should form part of the armoury.

It is, however, imperative to discuss threadbare the civilian part of the nuclear deal. It is also important that a clear policy is declared on what happens to the unique Fast Breeder Reactor program, which we have so doggedly pursued over the years and are probably near achieving important breakthroughs.

There are certain perspectives, which I want to lay out and examine.

First the nuclear deal.

a. The Indo-US deal or 1-2-3 Agreement is expected to permit civil nuclear commerce in exchange for full IAEA safeguards only on the civilian nuclear assets,

b. India would be permitted to identify assets used for military purposes and keep them away from international safeguards along with existing stock piles of re-processed uranium, plutonium and _ _ _ number of bombs that we may have,

c. There is the strategic angle of flexibility we will have on nuclear bomb testing and weaponisation,

d. Linked to this is the question of reliability of fuel supplies and whether this could be constantly linked to how well we “behave” (vis-à-vis our nuclear ambitions).

These four broad areas pretty much sum up the nuclear deal on which there seems to be so much hullabaloo. Everything else is incidental to the core. I wonder if these issues can ever be examined dispassionately in detail and we understand how this deal can impact us favourably or otherwise.

Sadly, emotional outbursts seem to be the order of the day and a rational evaluation seems remote.

The moot question is - Are we incapable of ever conducting a rational, organised and a strategic thought process? Overwhelming evidence suggests that we are not, but I am still hopeful.